24 Sep

Polarity + confirmation

By Juno Non classé Comments Off

We will talk about an element that has just been added not long ago on our signals : it's the polarity indicator.

The indicator of polarity :

You have an imaginary horizontal axis that indicates us the time on both sides. This is an indication of direction, the polarity which is falling or rising, it is very simple to read.

Then you have some elements that are in gray. These are elements for which we don't have sufficent certainty in order to tell you whether it's falling or rising. So, we saved them with this way. We still don't know yet if we will keep them, but we are working on that. If you are wathcing this video now, it will likely be changed in a month or two.

In the end, you have you have the same notion : the color which gives you the statistical probability for realization and the bars height gives you more or less signal strength.

So, here we are trading on the eurodollar again.

Look for good quality signals :

We will look at all the details of the signals if you want. It is September 22, 2015. So, these days the euro dollar, for those who follow, caused a few scares and it was also the case for the rest of the market. As you can see on the video, we are inside a canal Mid-long term falling channel.

I am not going to talk about it, it's not very interesting. Why do I say this ?

What we are trying to do is to have quality signals, and use them as such. The first thing we do when we open our graphics is watching and even putting a small post-it to remember the sens of the general trend. It's absolutely useless to get in front of the market. For people who make scalping, it is another area but for us, what we do here, it is the intraday.

A confirmation element : "the Price Action"

We are looking for positions that can last from minutes to hours or even days (it is much rarer though). And we are absolutely not looking to get in the opposite direction of the trend unless we have some elements of the Price Action.

There is also a training that I made which I believe is still available, I am talking about the Price Action. If you don't know waht it is, I recommend you to watch the presentation video. you will find that you will learn many things. At least, you will find that you will learn a lot of new things.

So, the price action gives us good confirmations for stops and reversals of trend. Here, in this case we have our signal of 11:42 am. Here it is, a signal that was given gray, on which there was no indication of direction. There was no certainty about the polarity but we know we are in a movement of mid-long term decline.

We certainly do not look for purchase positions. You still have a power indication which is true because you see it in the end. You have a large drop in primer, and it's a little late at the end of the last waves of the movement. Anyway, you could enjoy it here, it was not very expensive to put a stop. For example here on this bit, and let slip with an eventual stop (a "stop trading" for example). It was a good idea.

You have the signal of 12:30 pm which is a signal given to buyers with a certain probability of occurrence. However, there is no indication of force. And you see that it is exactly what we got, the motion has stopped. We have one, two, three, four contact points : they are hammers exactly on the candle, and it rebounded.

What to do :

When you're in a situation like this (mid-long term downward trend), again the purpose is not to buy but, it does give you an indication e.g. to exit your shorts here. It was a good idea to leave your shorts if you were short from here or simply if you have kept this one, it was the moment to get out. This is because you know there will be a stabilization maybe during a few minutes there. It did not last long (it lasted fifteen minutes), but it could have been longer.

The following signals were the one who is at 04:24 pm which is a medium quality signal : average in strength and average in probability. I put it here, we will keep an eye on it. And we especially look at the elements just as you see here, we have a beautiful hammer which is a fairly important stop element. So, when you are on the 5 minutes, this kind of gear, it does not inevitably last very long. The effect does not last necessarily during all day but, in any case, it takes a lot of capital to trace the course and pass from 1 to 50 to almost 25 cents above. In fact, what you need to looking for are confirmation points.

I truly recommend you to learn more on Price Action because, when it is combined with the time signals, you have something very solid. You almost have 80% of chance to be in the right direction.

Donc, voilà pour çà! Cette cette vidéo, c'était pour les éléments de polarité et de confirmation. Je publie très régulièrement des vidéos sur Youtube notamment et Facebook. Donc, vous avez des liens qu’on a mis, vous avez plein de cas différents. Aujourd'hui, j’ai mis volontairement des signaux qui étaient peu intéressants, vous voyez qu'on a des signaux qui sont plutôt court. Il n’y en a que 2 aujourd’hui qui en a une probabilité statistique élevé.

Summary :

Today was a difficult day to trade. When you have days like this, we especially seeks the quality. Let's look at the signal of 12:30 pm and 06:41 pm. The others are more technical, so it needs you to have more experience if you are really starting mainly on the euro-dollar.

You really have to be very careful then : for example, if you have doubts but you want to trade, let's admit you were there at 05: 03 pm. You have this signal but you are not sure what to do. Put just a half or a quarter of your lots, it's absolutely fine. You will have already gained experience and that's, you would have done something.

Always keep in mind that “Not to trade, it's also to trade”.

We don't have, every day, all the time to be in front of the markets, there are other things to do in life. But, I really suggest you to really be the most select possible and even try to trade only quality signals and to have the most supporting evidences.

If you already have a method for you then you can also combine it with the time signals method. You will see that you will gain in accuracy. And that's all I wish for you.

Be careful, good trades and goodbye !

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