Results of July


 What performance for our signals?

 

Objective analysis of signal performance such as ours is very difficult. This is the nature of these signals. Since we developed this method, we observe that the signals behave like accumulations of energy which, therefore, influence prices. When prices are not trending, this produces a significant upward or downward movement. When prices are trending, we statistically observe a temporary decline or an outright stop of the movement.

The signal can therefore trigger very different events, which significantly hinders its evaluation on computers. We have statistical analysis tools over long periods that compare the rises and the decreases at given times with quantifiable and reliable indexes (Chi-2), and which have also greatly helped us to develop our method. Given the diversity of the signals, these tools are no longer usable, forcing us to make a visual assessment, which is inevitably unaccurate.

We just made such an assessment, market by market, signal by signal, which gave us the following results:

 

Actual Results  of 13/07 – 17/08/2015 % of good timing % of stop without restart % of good polarity (2 weeks) % of bad polarity (2 weeks) % of estimated force
Gold

Crude Oil

EURUSD

DAX

75 %

65 %

65 %

73 %

 

12 %

13 %

14 %

20 %

53 %

63 %

50 %

42 %

47 %

41 %

50 %

58 %

19 %

51 %

15 %

23 %

 

We find that our signals are quite relevant to the in-advance determination of points of changes, however the polarities are not very good for EURUSD and especially for the DAX. We also observe an overestimation of the movement amplitude on the Crude.

This led us to overhaul our approach and make some changes:

  • elimination of some inefficients signals,
  • introduction of a new class of signals, for which we identify the point of change in time, without coming to determine their polarity (they will appear in gray on our daily tables)
  • temporary stop of the polarities on the DAX,
  • revision of amplitudes for crude.

We recalculated the same indicators over the same period, and this would have given the following theoretical results after these changes:

 

Theoretical Results  of 13/07 – 17/08/2015 % of good timing % of stop without restart % of good polarity (2 weeks) % of bad polarity (2 weeks) % of estimated force
Gold

Crude Oil

EURUSD

DAX

81 %

74 %

74 %

73 %

 

14 %

15 %

15 %

20 %

71 %

68 %

66 %

42 %

29 %

39 %

48 %

58 %

16 %

25 %

18 %

23 %

 

We hope that these improvements will bring better signal quality to our customers. In addition, we will introduce new signals currently being tested for the DAX starting from the week of August 31. We will also soon offer you forecast price levels well above the conventional approach of supports and resistances.

20/08/15

 

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